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Questions about how to use the DRYDAY® weather forecasts
 If I purchase a forecast, how many days will be incorrect?
How do I use your forecasts to plan activities that require dry weather?
How do I use your forecasts to plan activities that require wet weather?
What does the height of the bars in the forecast chart mean?
What is the difference in the forecast color of the bar chart?
Why are some DRYDAY® days higher in risk than their adjacent
transition days?
What is a "DRYDAY®" ?
How can I tell whether it will rain or snow?
How do I plan a ski/snowboard trip with the forecast?
Why don't you update your weather forecasts?
Questions about DRYDAY® weather forecast methodology
Why do you say that DRYDAY® weather forecasts are perfect for planning?
How far out can you forecast weather?
How do you forecast weather long-range?
Why do others often fail forecasting weather 1-2 days out?
How often do you update your weather forecasts?
How accurate are your weather forecasts?
Why do you say that DRYDAY® weather forecasts are perfect for planning?
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Most 5-7 day weather forecasts through the various media sources change
every few hours making them worthless for planning past a day or two. Our
weather forecasts do not ever change once they are published. The calculated
weather values will not change, so our weather forecast for 30-days from now has
the same expected accuracy as our forecast for tomorrow.
How far out can you forecast weather?
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Due to our unique methodology we are able to forecast weather up to 18 months out. Our longest forecast has the same potential accuracy as the forecast for
tomorrow. Any numbers of months beyond the free 30-day DRYDAY® forecast are available through DRYDAY.com.
How do you forecast weather long-range?
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The weather forecasts most others make start failing as soon as the
forecast is made and continue to get worse the further out they go. This is
because they are not sure how the forces that cause our weather are going to
change from hour to hour and day to day. The weather you get in 7 days is most
often not well understood by the weather forecaster until it gets much closer.
Our weather forecast system uses very exact calculations of a number of forces that
have been proven, by extensive testing, to be acting upon our weather at an exact date
in the future, at an exact location on the earth. Because these weather forecast
values are actually going to happen in the future they will not change and can be
relied upon at an exact time in the future.
Because of the above methodology, the potential accuracy of our DRYDAY® weather forecasts
never lessens with time. A forecast for a day 6 months out has the same potential accuracy
as the forecast for tomorrow.
Why do others often fail forecasting weather 1-2 days out?
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The weather forecasts most others make start
failing as soon as the forecast is made and continue to get worse the
further out they go. This is because they are not sure how the forces that
cause our weather are going to change from hour to hour and day to day.
The weather you will get in 7 days is most often not well understood by the weather
forecaster until it gets much closer.
Our weather forecast calculations do not
change from our original calculation, so there is no need to change them. They will remain as accurate as we could possibly make them for the
date in the future
Why don't you update your weather forecasts?
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Our weather forecasts are never updated. The forecast for
30 days from now has the same expected accuracy as the forecasts for tomorrow.
Our free 30-day weather forecasts do move forward every day. The forecast drops a day and adds
a day, every day on our DRYDAY.COM website, maintaining a constant 30 day
forecast.
How do I use your forecasts to plan activities that require dry weather?
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If your activity is going to be a one day event, look
at the "DRYDAY®" weather forecast bar chart and find the DRYDAY® (yellow bar)
that is the lowest with DRYDAY® days forecast on either side of it. The more
DRYDAY® days on either side, the better odds on your side for a dry event.
If your activity is going to be more than one day (one
week, for example), look for the longest string of DRYDAY® days, or if the month
is mostly Risky days, choose the lowest group of Risky days for your event, or
postpone it until you can look at the next month at DRYDAY.com.
For the best chance for dry weather for your event, you can purchase any number of additional
months of our weather forecasts for a very reasonable price through DRYDAY.com.
How do I use your forecasts to plan activities that require wet weather?
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The higher black and gray bars are where most of the rain should fall,
IF any rain does fall in the month. They are
not rain forecasts, but weak spots in the month, like a gate being left
open.
What does the height of the bars in the forecast chart mean?
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The higher black and gray bars bars are where most of the rain should fall,
IF any rain does fall in the month. They are
not rain forecasts, but weak spots in the month, like a gate being left
open.
What is the difference in the forecast color of the bar chart?
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There are three bar colors:
Yellow - No rain/snow expected over 0.01" (a TRACE)
Gray - Increasing chance for rain or snow
Black - Stronger chance for rain or snow (don't expect rain or snow on every risky day).
Why are some DRYDAY® days higher in risk than their adjacent transition days?
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All days next to a RISKY day are called TRANSITION
days. A transition day is there to keep you from planning any activity
within 24 hours of a RISKY day.
In developing this weather forecast
system, we found that when rain/snow occurred, it sometimes fell on the
day before a RISKY day and sometimes the day after a RISKY day. For
this reason we wanted to warn the user to stay 24 hours away from RISKY
days, so we inserted a Transition Day before and after each Risky day,
even if it were a lower % risk than the DRYDAY® next to it.
The fact that the Transition day is within 24 hours of a RISKY day is much more
important than the fact that it is of a lower % risk for rain or
snow. The "DRYDAY®" weather forecast system is protecting your plans for a dry
event.
What is a "DRYDAY®" ?
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Our major goal in developing the "DRYDAY®" Planning
Forecast system was to provide real help for people who need to avoid
rain/snow when planning an outdoor activity.
A "DRYDAY®" on the forecast chart is shown as a yellow
bar. A forecast DRYDAY® has a lower chance for rain/snow than the other forecast
days, shown as gray or black. These days have a greater chance
for rain/snow, but are not a "FORECAST" for rain/snow.
How can I tell whether it will rain or snow?
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Our "DRYDAY®" weather forecasts do not forecast rain or snow. We
concentrate on forecasting dry periods with the least chance for rain or snow. IF it
does rain in the 30-day weather forecast period, expect MOST of
the rain to fall on RISKY days (black bars), but not
ALL RISKY days.
If I purchase a forecast, how many days will be incorrect?
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First let's take a look at what the DRYDAY forecasts are designed to do for you.
They are primarily designed to show you where the drier periods of the month can be found, with significant accuracy, over the long term, to assist you in choosing dates free from rain/snow. They are not perfect and one should expect some to be incorrect, but as you use them again and again ("over the long term") you will begin to realize the advantage you are gaining in favorable odds for choosing a dry period for your event.
Remember, Risky days (black bars) are not "rain/snow" days, but simply weak spots in the month that may allow storms to come through your area. If it doesn't rain on a Risky day, it just did not rain. However, if it does rain on a DRYDAY, more than 0.01" (a TRACE), the forecast failed. The gray bars are called Transitional days and they merely keep you from getting within 24 hours of a Risky day, further protecting your favorable odds for success.
Because the system is not and cannot be perfect, the great advantage is realized when you use the system repeatedly. Even the very best betting system wins by using it over and over with the wins outnumbering the losses. Without a DRYDAY forecast, you have no reason to pick one day over another. You need favorable odds on your side.
Let's face it, even with very high odds, any one forecast can fail. The DRYDAY Planning Forecasts system tries to give you an advantage when you carefully choose a date(s) with the strongest odds for your outdoor event (most yellow bars and farthest from black bars).
How do I plan a ski/snowboard trip with the forecast?
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First we must assume that your ski area has snow.
Next select the dates you will be available to ski. Then,
if they are within the next 30 days, look at our DRYDAY® Weather
Planning forecast chart and select the dry dates (yellow bars),
which follow a group of Risky days (black bars). By doing this,
you have good odds on your side that you will have dry weather for
skiing, and possibly right after some fresh snow (Risky days before your dates).
Call your local ski area before you select your dates to insure there is enough
snow to begin with. Then check back with the ski area a day or two before your
selected dates for skiing to see if there was any fresh snow (or manmade snow)
during those Risky days before your selected dates. If your available dates to
ski are beyond the free 30-day DRYDAY® Weather Planning forecasts, you can purchase
months further out through our website, DRYDAY.com.
Why don't you update your weather forecasts?
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The calculations necessary for making our weather forecasts are exact with no
need for later changes. They are as good as the calculations for tomorrow's weather
forecast.
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